Queensborough doesn’t vote the same way as mainland New Westminster, and political newcomer Ruby Campbell is popular just about everywhere.
Those are a couple key takeaways from the full poll-by-poll results of the Oct. 15 civic election in New Westminster.
Before we break it all down, a quick recap for those who may have forgotten. After last Saturday’s vote, the NDP-affiliated, labour-endorsed team — this time running as Community First New Westminster — remains in firm control of the local political scene.
Mayor-elect Patrick Johnstone heads a Community First majority council, where he’s joined by (in order of votes won) Ruby Campbell, Jaimie McEvoy, Tasha Henderson and Nadine Nakagawa. Community First also ran six candidates for school board, and all six won, with incumbent Maya Russell topping the polls.
The New West Progressives continue to have one trustee on school board, incumbent Danielle Connelly, and earned two spots on council with Paul Minhas and Daniel Fontaine.
All of this, of course, we knew on election night. Now that the poll-by-poll election results have been released, we decided to take a closer look at the numbers to see how it all broke down.
Here’s what we found out.
Where did we get our numbers?
First, an explanatory note. We’re basing this analysis on the 23 individual poll results in the City of New Westminster’s official 2022 election results. We’re using “polling station” in this story as an all-encompassing term that includes regular election-day polling stations, mail-in ballots, advance voting and special voting opportunities (at care homes, hospitals, etc.).
There were three advance polling locations: Queensborough Community Centre, the New Westminster Lawn Bowling Club and New Westminster City Hall.
There were also three separate special voting opportunities: at Queens Park Care Centre/William Rudd House, at Royal Columbian Hospital and at Holy Trinity Cathedral. (The opportunity at Holy Trinity Cathedral was run as part of Homelessness Action Week and was designed to reach vulnerable citizens.)
The number of votes at each station varied widely, from just seven votes cast at Holy Trinity's special voting opportunity, to 1,242 at Queen Elizabeth Elementary School and 1,282 at Anvil Centre.
How did the mayoral race look?
Numerically, Community First New West mayoral candidate — and now mayor-elect — Patrick Johnstone captured 6,676 votes out of 15,923 ballots cast, or 41.9 per cent of the vote.
Johnstone’s best showings came in some of the city’s more densely populated areas: downtown and Brow of the Hill. He captured 53 per cent of the vote at St. Barnabas Anglican Church and Fraser River Middle School, 55.2 per cent at Anvil Centre and 55.3 per cent at École Qayqayt Elementary School.
For regular election-day polling, Johnstone’s lowest numbers were at Queen Elizabeth Elementary School (27.2 per cent), where his New West Progressive opponent Ken Armstrong topped the poll; Connaught Heights Elementary School, at 31.6 per cent, where independent Chuck Puchmayr topped the poll; and F.W. Howay Elementary School, at 34.6 per cent, where Armstrong was the top vote-getter in the mayoral race.
Johnstone’s vote percentage at individual polling stations on election day generally sat in the 40-to-45 per cent range.
Geographically speaking, Johnstone was the runaway winner, topping the vote at 18 of the 23 polling stations, representing neighbourhoods right across the city’s mainland.
The Progressives’ Ken Armstrong was the top vote-getter in advance voting at Queensborough Community Centre and election-day voting at Queen Elizabeth Elementary School, and he also topped the polls at F.W. Howay Elementary School.
Independent Chuck Puchmayr, meanwhile, topped the polls at Connaught Heights Elementary School, where he got 39.6 per cent of the vote. He also emerged tops as in two small polls: in special voting at Holy Trinity (with three votes, compared to the two cast for each of his competitors); and in special voting at Royal Columbian Hospital, where he and Johnstone took five votes apiece to Armstrong’s three.
Queensborough an outlier in New Westminster results
We looked at the election results with the question: Did vote patterns for council change by neighbourhood?
The answer, broadly speaking: Yes.
Keep in mind that voters did not have designated polling stations and were allowed to vote at any location of their choice, so there’s not necessarily a direct connection between where someone voted and where they live.
That said, poll-by-poll breakdowns still reflect some interesting neighbourhood trends.
First and foremost: Queensborough. The island neighbourhood was the decided outlier. This is where, as noted above, Ken Armstrong of the New Westminster Progressives topped the polls in the mayoral race, earning 53.8 per cent of the vote in the Queensborough Community Centre advance polling and 56.4 per cent at Queen Elizabeth Elementary School on election day.
The Progressives also saw their five council candidates collect a combined 49.6 per cent of the advance vote at Queensborough Community Centre and 50.4 per cent of the vote at Queen Elizabeth Elementary School on election day.
In the school board race, the three Progressives candidates — Danielle Connelly, Kathleen Carlsen and Teo Dobre — were also the top three vote-getters in Queensborough advance voting and at Queen Elizabeth Elementary School on election day.
Community First vs. New West Progressives: Who led where?
In mainland New Westminster, the NDP-affiliated community First New West team showed particular dominance at polls in some of the higher-density areas of the city: St. Barnabas Anglican Church and Fraser River Middle School in Brow of the Hill, and École Qayqayt Elementary School and Anvil Centre downtown.
But their voter success was not limited to those areas. Powered by the successful showing of the top vote-getter of the council race, Ruby Campbell, the Community First New West team saw at least one candidate (and usually multiple candidates) wind up in the top three at 19 of the 23 polls across the city’s mainland. They were shut out of the top three in only four polls: Queensborough, both advance and day-of voting; plus F.W. Howay Elementary School in Massey Victory Heights, and the special voting opportunity at Holy Trinity Cathedral, where just seven people cast their ballots.
The New West Progressives, meanwhile, had their best showings in neighbourhoods dominated by single-family housing — such as F.W. Howay Elementary School, where their candidates for council took a combined 51 per cent of the votes cast, and where Armstrong also topped the mayoral poll. The Progressives’ three school board candidates also topped the poll at F.W. Howay — the only mainland polling station where Community First candidates didn’t grab at least one (and usually two) of the top three spots.
We also crunched some numbers to see which, if any, neighbourhoods saw the Progressives get a higher percentage of votes than they had city council candidates — that is, with five of 12 candidates (or 41.7 per cent of those running), where did they get a higher vote percentage than that? Again, the answer centred on largely single-family neighbourhoods, with the slate’s best showings at Herbert Spencer Elementary School in Glenbrooke North (47.6 per cent); Lord Tweedsmuir Elementary School in the West End (44.7 per cent), and Connaught Heights Elementary School (43.7 per cent).
Neighbourhoods with a mix of single-family and multi-family residential, such as Sapperton (Skwo:wech Elementary School and Sapperton Pensioners Hall), showed more mixed results: Community First New West dominated at Sapperton Pensioners Hall, while Skwo:wech Elementary School saw the New West Progressives get 43.3 per cent of the vote and land two candidates in the top three vote-getters.
Queens Avenue United Church, uptown, showed mixed results, too, as Campbell topped the polls, with her Community First teammate Nadine Nakagawa in third. The Progressives’ Paul Minhas was second, and the Progressives’ candidates combined for 42 per cent of the vote — essentially on par with their number of candidates.
City council candidates: Top vote getters at individual polls
Election watchers in New Westminster will know that Ruby Campbell topped the city council race with 8,354 votes.
So it’s no surprise that the Community First New West newcomer was among the top three vote-getters at the largest number of polling stations. She was in the top three, by number of votes, at 17 of the 23 polling stations across New Westminster — far and away the highest number by any candidate.
She was followed by her Community First teammate, Jaimie McEvoy, who placed in the top three at 11 polling stations, and by Paul Minhas of the New West Progressives, at 10.
Remember: Voters could choose up to six candidates for city council but were not required to choose all six.
Council candidates placing in the top 3 at individual polling stations
How many times did an individual candidate show up in the top 3 at an individual polling station?
- Ruby Campbell, CFNW: 17
- Jaimie McEvoy, CFNW: 11
- Paul Minhas, NWP: 10
- Daniel Fontaine, NWP: 9
- Tasha Henderson, CFNW: 8
- Nadine Nakagawa, CFNW: 7
- Karima Budhwani, NWP: 3
- Rick Folka, NWP: 3
- Jiayi Li-McCarthy, NWP: 2
- Chinu Das, CFNW: 1
Who led where? Top 3 candidates at individual polling stations
Advance Voting – Queensborough Community Centre: 418 ballots cast
- Paul Minhas, NWP: 238
- Daniel Fontaine, NWP: 225
- Karima Budhwani, NWP: 219
Advance Voting – Lawn Bowling Club: 2,217 ballots cast
- Ruby Campbell, CFNW: 1,175
- Jaimie McEvoy, CFNW: 1095
- Daniel Fontaine, NWP: 1047
Advance Voting – City Hall: 1,601 ballots cast
- Ruby Campbell, CFNW: 868
- Jaimie McEvoy, CFNW: 865
- Tasha Henderson, CFNW: 805
Queen Elizabeth Elementary School (Queensborough): 1,242 ballots cast
- Paul Minhas, NWP: 687
- Daniel Fontaine, NWP: 677
- Rick Folka and Karima Budhwani, NWP: (tie) 617
Connaught Heights Elementary School (Connaught Heights): 351 ballots cast
- Ruby Campbell, CFNW: 186
- Daniel Fontaine, NWP: 175
- Paul Minhas, NWP: 174
Lord Tweedsmuir Elementary School (West End): 758 ballots cast
- Daniel Fontaine, NWP: 389
- Paul Minhas, NWP: 388
- Ruby Campbell, CFNW: 352
Lord Kelvin Elementary School (Brow of the Hill): 511 ballots cast
- Ruby Campbell, CFNW: 253
- Tasha Henderson, CFNW: 250
- Nadine Nakagawa, CFNW: 249
St. Barnabas Anglican Church (Brow of the Hill): 505 ballots cast
- Ruby Campbell, CFNW: 325
- Jaimie McEvoy, CFNW: 310
- Nadine Nakagawa, CFNW: 309
Century House (uptown): 926 ballots cast
- Ruby Campbell, CFNW: 513
- Jaimie McEvoy, CFNW: 501
- Tasha Henderson, CFNW: 467
Fraser River Middle School (Brow of the Hill): 667 ballots cast
- Ruby Campbell, CFNW: 396
- Nadine Nakagawa, CFNW: 395
- Tasha Henderson, CFNW: 394
Anvil Centre (downtown): 1,282 ballots cast
- Ruby Campbell, CFNW: 772
- Tasha Henderson, CFNW: 730
- Jaimie McEvoy, CFNW: 727
Queens Avenue United Church (uptown): 473 ballots cast
- Ruby Campbell, CFNW: 230
- Paul Minhas, NWP: 218
- Nadine Nakagawa, CFNW: 216
École Qayqayt Elementary School (downtown): 488 ballots cast
- Jaimie McEvoy, CFNW: 320
- Tasha Henderson, CFNW: 307
- Nadine Nakagawa, CFNW: 299
Herbert Spencer Elementary School (Glenbrooke North): 1,046 ballots cast
- Paul Minhas, NWP: 547
- Daniel Fontaine, NWP: 535
- Jaimie McEvoy, CFNW: 493
Glenbrook Middle School (Glenbrooke North): 815 ballots cast
- Ruby Campbell, CFNW: 433
- Tasha Henderson, CFNW: 399
- Nadine Nakagawa, CFNW: 395
F.W. Howay Elementary School (Massey Victory Heights): 436 ballots cast
- Daniel Fontaine, NWP: 226
- Jiayi Li-McCarthy, NWP: 224
- Paul Minhas, NWP: 219
Skwo:wech Elementary School (Sapperton): 726 ballots cast
- Daniel Fontaine, NWP: 363
- Ruby Campbell, CFNW: 362
- Paul Minhas, NWP: 346
Sapperton Pensioners Hall (Sapperton) 1,042 ballots cast
- Ruby Campbell, CFNW: 590
- Tasha Henderson, CFNW: 565
- Jaimie McEvoy, CFNW: 542
Mail Ballot Return 1: 10 ballots cast
- Ruby Campbell, CFNW: 9
- Chinu Das, CFNW: 7
- Jaimie McEvoy, CFNW: 7
Mail Ballot Return 2: 376 ballots cast
- Nadine Nakagawa, CFNW: 210
- Jaimie McEvoy, CFNW: 210
- Ruby Campbell, CFNW: 203
Special Voting – Queen’s Park Care Centre/William Rudd House: 10 ballots cast
- Ruby Campbell, CFNW: 4
- Rick Folka, NWP: 4
- Jaimie McEvoy, CFNW: 4
Special Voting – Royal Columbian Hospital: 13 ballots cast
- Ruby Campbell, CFNW: 6
- Rick Folka, NWP: 6
- Daniel Fontaine and Paul Minhas, NWP: (tie) 5
Special voting – Holy Trinity Cathedral 7 ballots cast
- Karima Budhwani, NWP: 5
- Jiayi Li-McCarthy, NWP: 5
- Paul Minhas, NWP: 4
Want to know more?
You can delve into the poll-by-poll breakdown at the City of New Westminster election results website.
📣 SOUND OFF: What did you think of the New Westminster election results? What voting trends interested you? Send us a letter.
Follow Julie MacLellan on Twitter @juliemaclellan.
Email Julie, jmaclellan@newwestrecord.ca
