So just what will the B.C. Liberal party look like the day after the election and will it continue to be a viable, potent political force in this province?
That is the question key members of the party are asking each other right now. Forget the public front the party is bravely showing, one that is about the "underdog" premier staging a miracle comeback.
While a victory is still obviously the most desired and hoped-for outcome on election night, experienced hands in the party are predicting different scenarios.
One current MLA, who is not seeking re-election, told me he thinks the party could be reduced to 12 seats. A veteran party strategist told me last month he was betting on about 19 seats, and he's revised his estimate downwards since.
Of course, the NDP could still be hit with some kind of disaster or scandal that closes the gap in public opinion, but that may be wishful thinking for the ruling party.
Further clouding the comeback scenario for the B.C. Liberals is that the NDP's vote is considered to be more "efficient," which means it is more evenly spread throughout ridings the party is competitive in.
The B.C. Liberals, on the other hand, would dearly like to take some of their huge pools of voters' support in places like Abbotsford, Langley, West Vancouver, south Surrey and Richmond and distribute them in other ridings, where it would make them more competitive.
What this "efficiency" factor means is that the NDP could win an election with fewer votes but more riding victories (which is what happened in the 1996 election). So when considering any polling, remember the B.C.
Liberals not only have to catch the NDP, but they have to pass them by at least two percentage points on Election Day in order to form government.
This further illustrates the magnitude of any comeback task facing the B.C. Liberals.
So, comeback dreams aside, there is a debate in the party that is framed around a post-election recovery plan, assuming recovery is indeed possible. Two camps appear to have formed, and they are not divided along ideological lines.
Rather, the split is between those supporting party leader Christy Clark (this includes a handful of cabinet ministers, notably Rich Coleman, backroom strategist Pat Kinsella and various Clark appointees) and those who want to rid the party of her and her people (this group consists of close to a dozen sitting MLAs).
There's no question that any B.C. Liberal who is actually elected on May 14 will have much greater power and influence when it comes to reshaping the party's future. If the party is indeed ousted from government, what's left of the caucus will choose an interim leader, and that's why there is growing interest within the party on the seats they actually have a shot at winning.
Many incumbent MLAs intend to run solitary campaigns that are solely focused on getting themselves elected and to heck with anyone else, including the party leader.
In fact, I wouldn't be surprised if some candidates ask that Christy Clark, given her personal unpopularity with the voters, not visit their ridings during the campaign. Rumours abound that some candidates will place stickers over Clark's name on their campaign signs.
As well, the name "B.C. Liberal Party" can be a drag on a candidate's attractiveness to the voters. So some incumbent MLAs, such as Bennett in Kootenay East, will run purely on personal name recognition (Polak is using a different colour scheme than her party's in some of her campaign literature).
A prime example of the tension between the central party and a number of candidates is a dispute over the use of a central "phone bank." The party has every candidate contribute up to $25,000 to help pay for the phone bank services, but some have balked at doing so and insist on creating their own, localized phone banks.
But all that inner tension aside, the real issue now is whether the coalition can survive if it loses badly on May 14. Which of the two developing factions will have the most MLAs elected, and can they work together to rebuild? If they can't, it's not inconceivable that the B.C. Liberal party will ultimately split in two, or completely disappear.
Keith Baldrey is chief political reporter for Global B.C. [email protected].
