The B.C. Teachers' Federation is about to be given the right to engage in a full-scale strike, something many of its members have been demanding for years. But they had better be careful what they wish for.
The public simply won't tolerate prolonged work stoppages that close schools behind picket lines. I would guess a teachers' strike would last a maximum of two weeks before public pressure mounts on the provincial government to end the dispute through legislation.
Granting teachers the power to strike is part of Education Minister Peter Fassbender's interesting pitch to the federation. He's trying to lure them onto the dance floor, and so far the federation has tentatively expressed interest in what he has to say, but has also made it clear that it's time to "show us the money."
And there doesn't appear to be much money to be had. Fassbender wants a 10-year deal with the union, but with provincial finances expected to be fairly bleak for the next few years it's hard to see how the federation would be motivated to sign a long-term deal that gives its members minimal pay raises (or even none at all) for that stretch.
Nevertheless, it's too early to completely write off the chances of a long-term deal being reached. The government has signalled it's willing to be creative and bend a bit to meet some of what the federation is looking for in certain areas, so we'll see how long this little dance lasts.
For example, Fassbender has said more items can be bargained at the local level rather than the provincial level, which may meet a longstanding demand by the federation.
He has also agreed to have face-to-face negotiations between the central government and the union, something the federation has been calling for. Fassbender has taken away the provincial bargaining authority of the B.C. Public Sector Employees Association and has put it in the hands of two people: Health Employers Association's Michael Marchbank, and longtime labour negotiator Peter Cameron.
In elbowing the association aside, Fassbender has removed school trustees, who had representation on the association's board, from the bargaining process (although they will be retained in an "advisory capacity").
This is not necessarily a bad thing, given that school trustees, who are elected by a relatively small part of the population, can't point to any great success that is due to their presence at the provincial bargaining table.
Cameron is an interesting choice here. His background includes working for a fairly militant union, CAIMAW (Canadian Association of Industrial, Mechanical and Allied Workers), back in the 1980s. Since then he has emerged as a top labour negotiator and mediator, and if anyone can pull off a miracle deal it's someone like him.
While a 10-year deal seems like a remote possibility, I wouldn't discount the chances of, say, a fiveyear contract being agreed to.
Given the government's tight money situation, such a contract would have to be back-end loaded, meaning any wage hikes and big funding lifts would come in the last years of the deal rather than the first two years.
Would the federation agree to a contract that has no wage increases for the first two years, but then gives hikes of around three per cent in each of the next three years of a contract? If the government also agreed to increase funding to address class composition and class size in the back end of the contract, along with assigning more items to local bargaining, the roots of a contract start to become visible.
Of course, Fassbender may discover, as his predecessors in the portfolio did, that the federation isn't really capable of true collective bargaining and so any horse-trading that traditionally goes on in negotiations just doesn't happen.
But the leadership of the federation has changed since the last contract round, and so far the message coming from the union about Fassbender's proposals has not been one of outright dismissal or condemnation, which was the norm in the past.
In any event, don't expect the government to impose a 10-year deal. Such a move would be unconstitutional, given that it would effectively remove the collective bargaining rights for thousands of people for a decade.
But the courts have ruled that if government shows it has tried to bargain in good faith and has exhausted all avenues to reach a deal, it can impose a contract on its employees. We've seen that done before with B.C. teachers, but I don't think we're at that point yet.
As long as Fassbender and the federation keep dancing, there is hope for a deal reached at the negotiating table rather than in the legislature.
Keith Baldrey is chief political reporter for Global B.C.
