What was not considered even a remote possibility by many just a few months ago now has to be taken seriously: Stephen Harper and the Conservative Party may yet win this federal election.
His political opponents and much of the public have long been ready to put Harper and his folks on the political scrap heap. That may still happen, but the fact is there appears to be more life in the ruling Conservatives than many had thought possible.
The Mike Duffy scandal has come and gone, at least for now. Harper has been beat up in the media for various other controversies -- the Syrian refugee crisis, dumb candidates who've had to resign, a sluggish start to his campaign, hiring a ruthless political advisor from Australia, to name just a few -- yet he has persevered, at least in one opinion poll after another.
How on earth could this have happened? How could someone who is so vilified by his opponents even stand a chance of winning an election?
Several factors are working in Harper's favor, and they won't disappear from view before the Oct. 19 vote.
First and foremost it is clear that the economy is emerging as the defining issue with the electorate. Traditionally, this is an issue that works better for the Conservatives than the other parties.
Older voters (who vote in far greater numbers than younger voters) are usually more cautious about wanting a government to make major moves that may risk the economy's health. They generally favour a go-slow approach that doesn't involve spending huge amounts of money on something.
For the most part, Harper fits that bill nicely. In contrast, Liberal leader Justin Trudeau has boldly come out in favour of running deficits to pay for infrastructure projects and NDP leader Tom Mulcair also wants to spend a lot of new dollars (albeit while balancing the budget) on pet programs like a $15-a-day daycare initiative.
Trudeau and Mulcair also want to make various tax changes. Those changes make their base of voters happy, but likely firm up Harper's support as well.
Harper insists he alone can provide economic security for the country. He is also playing another related card - national security.
While it was at first thought that the Syrian refugee crisis would somehow hurt him with the electorate, the precise opposite seems to have happened. One can even argue that Harper has exploited the issue by leaving the impression his two opponents would open the country's floodgates to refugees without proper security checks (a claim without any foundation, but this isn't the first election campaign that features overheated rhetoric or downright misleading claims against an opponent).
Harper has managed to fire up his base of voters on issues like these. He has been accused of playing fear-based politics, but that accusation has been laid before and likely has little traction with most voters.
Finally, as the campaign draws to the its final weeks, voters start to pay more attention to it. The voters know Harper and likely have their minds made up one way or another about him already.
But they don't know Mulcair or Trudeau, to anywhere near the same degree. Many people are only taking a hard look at them for the first time (most people don't watch or care about question period in the House of Commons).
The fact that neither Mulcair or Trudeau have been able to pull away from each other, or from Harper, suggests they haven't caught on with the majority of voters. To beat Harper, one of them has to establish himself as the clear alternative, and so far neither has (a reflection, perhaps, that while voters say want change they may actually be fearful when they realize what that change may look like).
It may remain a tight three-way race until the end. And if that's the case, the one who benefits most from that scenario is the guy currently in the Prime Minister's office.
There are still more than three weeks to go, but don't bury Stephen Harper just yet.
Keith Baldrey is chief political reporter for Global B.C.
