After touring the massive Site C dam project last week, I could not help but come away with the impression that no matter how controversial this project is and no matter what kind of opposition there is to it, there is little chance of stopping its completion.
Looking down from a high bluff at the site of the dam’s eventual location, giant trucks carrying huge amounts of earth were in perpetual motion. Already, a massive part of the landscape – 980 hectares, equivalent in size to more than two Stanley Parks -- has been cleared or altered. Eight million cubic meters of dirt have been removed.
About 2,000 people (80 per cent of them British Columbians, according to B.C. Hydro) currently work on the site, and that number will grow to more than 3,500 when diversion work on the Peace River begins. The employment levels will peak in 2020, and the dam will be in service by 2024.
To accommodate the workforce, a small town has literally been built nearby. Already, $1.5 billion has been spent and a further $2.5 billion is locked up with signed contracts.
Will the election outcome affect the future of this megaproject? I rather doubt it.
The B.C. Liberals green-lighted the project in the first place, so if that party wins on May 9 nothing changes. Party leader Christy Clark’s leader’s tour visited the region last week, allowing the accompanying media to tour the project site, a deliberate strategy aimed at cementing her image as a creator of jobs.
The B.C. Greens oppose the project outright, although party leader Andrew Weaver originally endorsed it, which brings into question of the sincerity of the party’s opposition. But the party’s chances of winning the election seem remote.
The NDP’s position on Site C is also a bit hazy and it can change depending on who is being asked about it. Saanich South MLA Lana Popham, an ardent foe of Site C, has said publicly the project would be sent to the B.C. Utilities Commission with conditions – basically, that the commission quickly render a verdict that kills it outright.
However, NDP leader John Horgan’s position is slightly different: he also would refer the project to the commission with no conditions, presumably hoping the commission would render a similar verdict of death.
But not so fast.
Horgan is on record as originally supporting the Site C dam’s construction. His shift to opposition appears to result from pressure from factions of his party (the Globe and Mail has reported that Popham had threatened to quit the caucus if Horgan changed the party’s Site C position).
If his party wins the election and he becomes premier, put yourself in his shoes. Would you, as premier, essentially fire more than 2,000 people and write off $4 billion worth of work and contractual obligations?
I kind of doubt it.
Firing a workforce of that size would tie a political millstone around Horgan’s neck about as big as one of those trucks carrying earth at the Site C location. Killing that many jobs would likely make him a one-term wonder.
Clark herself has noted the subtle differences between her opponents’ positions on Site C.
“If it’s the NDP, it’s dead. If it’s the Greens, it would be deader,” she told reporters when she was campaigning in the Peace region last week.
There are many arguments against the dam’s construction (e.g. at $9 billion it’s too expensive, the power it generates won’t be needed for years, it will needlessly flood agricultural land) but it appears they are now moot.
The occasional study or paper from academics opposed to the project (the latest one was from a UBC professor, released last week) seem pointless. The dam has already overcome a number of legal challenges (B.C. Hydro has won more than 10 court challenges from local landowners and some local First Nations) and there is every reason to think it will continue winning in court.
The project does seem to have reached the proverbial “point of no return” no matter which of the two major parties emerge victorious on May 9.
Keith Baldrey is chief political reporter for Global B.C.
