There are 85 ridings being fought over in this election campaign, and trying to keep track of even half of them can be a daunting task for anyone not a political operative or a journalist assigned to election night duties.
But in a close race that separates the top two parties by three percentage points or less (in other words, the usual B.C. election result), it's safe to say that about 60 of those ridings are locks for either the B.C. Liberals or the NDP.
The rest of them (again, in a close result) are in play, in terms of the chances of them being won by either party. Some tilt towards one party more than the other, and some are potential three-way races involving third-party or independent candidates.
Of course, if the NDP hangs on to its lead in the polls and wins by five or six percentage points, the B.C. Liberals will be lucky to hang onto 20 of their existing seats. But history suggests elections in this province are usually much closer than that (and therefore more interesting to anticipate!)
There's not enough space in this column to look at all the potentially key races, but there a number of them in Metro Vancouver that may signal which party is headed for victory - and by how many seats - when all the votes are tallied. They are all currently held by the B.C. Liberals, and if they slip into the NDP's hands it will indicate it's all over for the ruling party. But if the B.C. Liberals can hold them, they may not be dead yet.
?Vancouver-Point Grey: this is ground zero of the election for both the B.C. Liberals and the NDP. Both parties are desperate to win here (more than one senior person from either party has told me if they don't win this seat, they don't win the election). Christy Clark barely won this seat in the byelection (she won by 500 votes, compared to Gordon Campbell's 2,300 winning margin in 2009) at the height of her personal popularity, and she's less popular now. Her chief opponent is David Eby of the NDP, but the B.C. Conservatives are running a credible candidate in Duane Nuckell, and he will likely drain votes from Clark.
?Vancouver Fairview: a classic "swing" riding that has gone back and forth between the two parties over time.
The B.C. Liberals won by little more than 1,000 votes last time, and the NDP is running environmentalist George Heyman against incumbent Margaret MacDiarmid. Heyman is a former B.C. Government and Service Employees' Union president, and he'll no doubt have a vast army of union volunteers working for him on election day. But the fact that there is no B.C. Conservative candidate should work in MacDiarmid's favor.
?Burnaby North: for some reason, low-profile Richard Lee of the B.C. Liberals keeps winning here, albeit by smaller margins (just 258 votes in 2009). The NDP's Janet Routledge is his chief opponent, and the NDP has almost got this marked in their win column.
?Surrey Tynehead: long-time B.C. Liberal MLA Dave Hayer isn't running, leaving this one wide open.
Two Indo-Canadian newcomers: Avtar Bains for of the NDP and Amrik Virk of the B.C. Liberals are squaring off, but given that Hayer only won by less than 1,600 votes and that a Conservative candidate is running, the NDP has to like its chances for victory much better than before.
?Maple Ridge Mission/ Maple Ridge Pitt Meadows: is there a community in B.C. more polarized than Maple Ridge?
For years, elections in the region have gone down right to the wire on election night.
Last time, the NDP won MR-PM by 274 votes, while the B.C. Liberals won MR-M by a mere 68 votes. If either riding is at all close, it may be a sign the B.C. Liberals may be more popular than they now appear to be.
-North Vancouver Lonsdale: on paper, this would seem like a fairly safe B.C. Liberal riding.
Naomi Yamamoto won by 2,500 votes last time, but the NDP has won here before, and longtime city councillor Craig Keating is running for the NDP.
So, in a close race, the path to victory would seem to begin on the west side of Vancouver, take a brief detour to North Vancouver and head through Burnaby and down to Surrey.
We'll see which party can stick to that path with the most success.
Keith Baldrey is chief political correspondent for Global B.C. Email him at [email protected].
