Even for a political observer, it’s difficult to get too excited about an election campaign during the dog days of summer.
With the exception of political operatives, I suspect it’s the same thing for most people. Minds are elsewhere right now: the beach, barbecues, vacations, etc.
It’s not just because it’s summer that the federal election campaign appears sluggish and distant. It’s also because its record length (11 weeks) means many folks are putting off “paying attention” until voting day draws nearer.
I suspect the interest and energy will pick up after Labour Day, when vacations end and kids go back to school.
But of course, the campaign has been underway a few weeks now and even if it’s not on everyone’s radar, it has displayed some glimpses of what to expect.
Judging from what we’ve seen so far, we can expect the NDP’s Tom Mulcair to continue to be cautious in terms of policies. He’s been emphasizing things like law and order, and child care and not taxes, and has ignored his party’s sizable pro-Palestine and anti-development factions. Mulcair wants to make sure he doesn’t look threatening or radical, and wants to present a viable alternative to a governing party that appears to be teetering.
The Conservatives’ Stephen Harper will continue his tightly-scripted, uber-control approach to campaigning. He will continue to try to appeal to a minority of voters, most of them in southern Ontario, Alberta and parts of B.C. And his policy roll-out will continue to be aimed at older voters. Harper is focused on the 39 per cent of the electorate who keep him in power.
The Liberals’ Justin Trudeau will continue trying to be heard. He’s likely felt the slow start to the campaign the most negatively, as he appears to have the most ground to make up. But because he seems to be the underdog, any sign of rising fortunes for Trudeau may allow him to portray himself as the “comeback kid.”
So far, the three leaders are mostly shadow-boxing with each other. The lack of a mass-audience televised debate has meant little direct interaction for them.
No issue has dominated so far. The Duffy trial has received the most media attention, but it’s unclear whether it will cut into Conservative support.
I suspect scandals don’t move voters from one party to another. In the end, the economy usually trumps everything else.
Make no mistake, the campaign will heat up next month. But until then, feel free to focus on the barbecue and the beach more than on federal politicians.
Keith Baldrey is chief political reporter for Global B.C.
