We all have heard already about the spectacular landslide victory achieved by the New Westminster and District Labour Council-endorsed slate in the recent New Westminster election. But the data shows a different picture. It was not as much “machine” candidates’ win as it was “independent” candidates’ loss.
But first, the really encouraging news about voter turnout. For a variety of reasons – from a competitive mayoral race by two strong candidates, to extra voting places provided by the city, to nice weather on election day – some 14,560 voters voted, nearly 3,500 more than in previous elections, raising our voter turnout to a respectable 32.5 per cent, up from 24.6 per cent in 2011.
Because the election was so competitive, it is reasonable to assume that most of pro-machine voters voted for a full pro-machine slate. In this case, adding all votes received by this slate and dividing by six gives the number of voters who voted predominantly for labour-endorsed candidates, 5,820 or 40 per cent.
Deducting 5,820 from 14,560 gives the number of voters who voted predominantly for independent candidates, 8,740 or 60 per cent.
An interesting observation is that a great majority of 3,500 new voters voted mostly for independent candidates; even nearly 2,000 voters who supported the mayor-elect (labour council endorsed) preferred to vote for independent candidates for council.
How come, then, despite all this voter support, independent candidates won no seats?
Reason one, quite obviously, is vote splitting among too many independent candidates. In other places, such a problem is resolved through “primaries” and “run-off” elections; but these methods do not apply in B.C.
Reason two, independent candidates did not give voters an easy way to distinguish them among so many other independent candidates. Running as part of democratic electoral organization is one such way. Could it help? Judge for yourself: Two of the 2011 Voice candidates ran again in 2014 and both got noticeably fewer votes, despite being more experienced, better known and benefiting from higher voter turnout.
As I know, some attempts were made to revive Voice in time for these elections, but not enough candidates were interested. It was their decision, but it cost them votes which were not cast by pro-independent voters who voted for fewer than six candidates. Why? Maybe because not having the time to make an “informed decision” with so many different platforms to review, or maybe because of being afraid to “cancel” their own vote.
Based on the above figures, I have little reason to doubt that if four top-ranked independent candidates run on same democratic slate, and if the independent field was eight to 10 candidates, not 15, we would have elected three or even four independent council members.
Canadian public and media become dismayed when a small majority of voters leads to disproportionally large number of seats, as it happens from time to time in federal and provincial politics.
Imagine how the public would feel if a rather small minority of voters (40 per cent) elect all (100 per cent) of seats. It seems this is pretty much what happened in New Westminster’s 2014 elections.
Vladimir Krasnogor ran for mayor in the New Westminster municipal election.
