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COLUMN: Here's how Saturday's election results will reverberate in the B.C. legislature

The outcome of the municipal elections in Metro Vancouver will undoubtedly have a serious impact on the provincial political scene in a number of instances.
Joe Keithley
Green candidate Joe Keithley claimed a council seat in Burnaby - but will an increase Green presence in the region mean anything on the provincial scene?

The outcome of the municipal elections in Metro Vancouver will undoubtedly have a serious impact on the provincial political scene in a number of instances.

For example, NDP MLA Leonard Krog’s successful bid for the Nanaimo mayor’s job creates a gaping hole on the NDP’s governing benches. His departure leaves the NDP-Green alliance with a reduced majority of just one seat.

Look for Premier John Horgan to call a byelection to fill the seat rather quickly. The next confidence vote in the legislature will likely be the vote on the budget next spring and, to be safe, Horgan needs that single vote.

Of course, if the BC Liberals win that byelection it would produce a tie in the house, and that in all likelihood would force an early provincial election.

A tie would require Speaker Darryl Plecas to vote to break any ties, and that is not a situation that would stand the test of time.

Having said that, it must be pointed out that Nanaimo is historically a very strong NDP riding. However, keep in mind two points: the 2012 NDP byelection win in the Liberal stronghold of Chilliwack-Hope, and the fact that historically B.C. governments traditionally lose way more by elections than they win.

Another example? The return of Doug McCallum as Surrey mayor will bring disruption to the Metro Vancouver civic scene and reverberate onto the provincial one.

His vow to scrap the LRT line in Surrey and build a SkyTrain extension may lead to a chaotic situation. The project will cost $1.65 billion, and most of that funding ($1.12 billion) will come from TransLink and regional government.

McCallum seems to think TransLink will willingly shift that $1.12 billion to his plan for a Skytrain extension. There is no guarantee whatsoever of that happening and the provincial government will be watching this situation with growing alarm.

After all, just last month Premier John Horgan and Prime Minister Justin Trudeau held a joint news conference announcing the LRT project and the Broadway subway line, and now McCallum wants to wreck one of them with potentially nothing to show in return.

In addition, his vow to get rid of the RCMP in Surrey and replace it with a municipal police force is going to drive Solicitor-General Mike Farnworth right up the wall. Any move by McCallum in this manner will surely strain relations between Surrey and any B.C. government.

McCallum clearly rode to victory on these kinds of populist issues, but it is hard to see how he can deliver on them. As was made clear in the last provincial election, Surrey is an important political battleground, and it will be interesting to see how McCallum’s performance affects the NDP (and the B.C. Liberals) standing there.

Meanwhile, the B.C. Green Party must like what it saw in the municipal elections, given that civic Greens elected eight of nine candidates on various Vancouver councils and boards, and elected a candidate (ex-DOA rocker Joe Keithley) to Burnaby council as well.

I am not convinced that kind of breakthrough will translate into a stronger provincial presence for the B.C. Greens, but it has to be encouraging nevertheless.

In addition, the NDP has to like the fact that labuor-backed candidates did well in some communities.

Kennedy Stewart, who ran as an Independent but is obviously an NDPer, is the new mayor of Vancouver. He will be presiding over a council dominated by right-leaning NPA councillors and three Greens and a far left COPE councilor, which will make things challenging. But hey, a win is a win.

Also, ex-BCGEU president Darryl Walker is now the mayor of the supposedly conservative bastion of White Rock, and labor-supported candidates won in both Port Moody and Port Coquitlam.

Then there is new Burnaby mayor Mike Hurley, who also had labor backing. A handful of NDP MLAs told me they were just fine with the prospect of a Hurley mayoralty, even it meant knocking off long-time mayor Derek Corrigan, a strong New Democrat himself.

I expect Hurley – and new Port Coquitlam Mayor Brad West – to emerge as major political voices in the Metro region, and that will be good news for the sitting government in Victoria.

Keith Baldrey is chief political reporter for Global B.C.