Several weeks ago, NDP house leader Mike Farnworth insisted to me that he was convinced his party was going to be able to cling to power longer than many – including those in that party – had speculated.
I didn’t argue with him, but he seemed to want to drive the point home with me. Now I know why.
That’s because Farnworth has been carrying around a secret – one he shared only with Premier John Horgan – that only became public late last week: that B.C. Liberal MLA Darryl Plecas was willing to serve as legislature Speaker.
Plecas’ move (he is now an ex-B.C. Liberal MLA, as his old party terminated his membership for performing what it considered to be an act of betrayal) gives the NDP significant breathing room in the legislature.
The NDP, propped up by the support of the three B.C. Green MLAs on confidence votes, will now have a three-seat majority (44 to the B.C. Liberals’ 41) when those votes occur. Even when the B.C. Liberals reclaim the Kelowna seat vacated by former premier Christy Clark whenever a byelection is held, the New Democrats will still have a somewhat comfortable two-seat cushion.
Farnworth began talks with Plecas in the summer, and it didn’t take long for the two to come to an agreement (which may partly explain Horgan’s rather serene demeanour since moving into the premier’s office). The government house leader didn’t even tell members of his own caucus about this stunning development, and it blindsided the already beleaguered B.C. Liberal caucus as well.
Plecas’ decision to seek the Speaker position has rocked the legislature like few things have before. In the four months since the May 9th election, the B.C. Liberals have largely acted like the NDP-Green arrangement was going to be short-lived and that they would return to what they considered their rightful place: in government.
Now, they are staring an ugly reality squarely in the face: they may well sit in the thankless Opposition benches for more than four years (the NDP intends to move the next election date to the fall of 2021 instead of the spring).
The body language of the B.C. Liberal MLAs last Friday morning when Plecas was, by tradition, “dragged” to the Speaker’s chair by the two house leaders, was telling, to say the least. Some of them were slumped down in their chairs as they glared contemptuously at their former caucus colleague. It was dawning on them they wouldn’t be changing desks anytime soon.
I have no idea how effective a Speaker Plecas will be. The contempt and anger directed at him by his former colleagues seems genuine, and his own statements in media interviews over the summer (when he dismissed any notion of him becoming Speaker because it would a “dishonorable” act and one of “betrayal”) will not help his credibility.
Perhaps the anger will dissipate over time. Or perhaps not. As Speaker, Plecas is in charge of the legislature and must enforce the rules, but the Opposition can exasperate anyone who sits in the chair if it so chooses.
At the end of the legislature session before the election campaign, for example, the NDP Opposition caucus simply ignored – or talked back to even – then-Speaker Linda Reid, accusing her of favouritism.
I’m not sure, however, that the B.C. Liberals really want to spend the next four years pouting and kicking their desks, refusing to accept the authority of someone who may well have sealed their doom but at the same time provided some clarity and stability to the political situation.
Of course, things can still change, and given the craziness that has occurred since voting day, one shouldn’t assume too much in the strange world of B.C. politics these days.
It’s possible that Plecas could face a recall campaign, but one can’t begin for 18 months, and they are almost impossible to pull off successfully.
Or perhaps the Greens will tire of propping up the NDP, but I rather doubt that as well. The three MLAs seem to be enjoying their new status, and it’s hard to see them taking down a government in favour of an early election.
The NDP can thank their veteran house leader and former leadership candidate for their suddenly brighter long-term prospects. Farnworth’s secret is going to pay off.
Keith Baldrey is chief political reporter for Global B.C.
